You know what connects with voters? The sense that you’re saying what you actually believe.

A recent Democracy Corps memo got a lot of attention for reporting that voters are not responding to the Democrats’ message of “go forward, not back.” According to the corps’ polling, Democratic candidates need to focus on frames of “change Washington, pro-middle class, against Wall Street.”

Maybe so. But I’m reminded of an earlier Democracy Corps poll, from 2005, which found that 55 percent of voters knew what Republicans stood for, and only 27 percent knew that about Democrats.

It wasn’t a judgment of honesty — people just actually didn’t know.

I think it’s because too many Democratic candidates are unable to make clear, simple statements of their heartfelt convictions — it’s not that they don’t have them, they just can’t say them. Instead, they choose from a menu of policy positions, emphasizing this one or that one depending on what the polls say that week. But policy positions, no matter how worthy, say nothing about what’s in your heart. And it’s what’s in your heart that voters want to know about.

No matter how modern we think we are, elections are still about choosing a tribal leader: We want the strong, trustworthy one.

That is the meta-message of all political communication, and it out-weighs the actual message. It’s why confident absurdities like Sarah Palin, Christine O’Donnell or Glenn Beck have followers. For all their (you would think) obvious failings, they can at least act like they’re stating deeply held beliefs.

Imagine if more Democrats were crazy enough to just stand up for health care reform because it was the right thing to do. Nuts, right? Well, let’s try it on for size anyway. Imagine if Americans heard a few more speeches that went something like this:

You’re damn right I voted for health care reform. I’m proud of that vote. Who wouldn’t vote to reform an expensive, wasteful system that denies care to sick people — to sick children? These people who are trying to scare you with talk of death panels — they know it’s a lie. And they know we already have death panels — at insurance companies that deny coverage to the people who need it. Who wouldn’t vote to reform a health care system that kills people unnecessarily?

I’ll tell you who: people who work for the insurance companies, not for you. That would be the Republican Party. When the health insurance companies need something, Republicans come running. When you need something, forget it.

The poll-driven among us might say, “Oh no, health care isn’t testing well in this district.” Maybe not surprising, when it’s read by a pollster’s phone caller. But how about when it’s delivered with passionate commitment by someone who, we hope, projects some personal authority? In September, we saw Democratic numbers improve, with some pundits suggesting it’s because more Dem candidates were counter-attacking. I’d bet it wasn’t because of any magic new messaging, but because you simply look stronger when you stop letting bullies stick your head in the toilet. (That and the often overlooked effects of good old fashioned field organizing, but that’s another post.)

I’m not naive enough to think polls can be ignored. But polls can’t tell you how to be a leader. Just like yesterday’s financial news, polls are a trailing indicator, and chasing them is a loser’s game. In politics, like in finance, there’s no reward without risk.

In politics, though, you can be rewarded for simply being seen to take a risk, even if that risk is not the right one. How many times did George W. Bush get a pass for that?

I think Democrats have a hard time figuring this out — precisely because they’re trying to figure it out. We’re the party of reason. A lot of us want to believe there’s a science to this, and polls seem to promise that.

Well, there is no science that can make a leader. Leadership is about character. And if people can’t find real character, they’ll settle for a character, like from a bad movie.

But look what happened in 2008, when the real thing came along: swept aside every poll there was, and led all the way to a landslide.

Not that it’s never true. On the one hand, you see the Tea Partier with the misspelled sign, who probably doesn’t grasp how badly he’s being played by corporate lobbyists. On the other hand you see Glenn Beck, who knows the facts but doesn’t care. Trumping them both is Sarah Palin, effortlessly combining ignorance and dishonesty.

But these characters don’t tell the whole story. Not all Tea Partiers are dupes, and not all Glenn Beck fans share his lack of integrity. It’s worth remembering: If you think you’re simply smarter or morally superior to your opponents, you’re probably missing something important.

I believe we need to listen more carefully to the far right. In particular, we need to appreciate the deep sincerity with which many of them believe glaringly obvious falsehoods. Many are educated, moral people. And yet they passionately insist on fictions, despite any and all evidence to the contrary.

I think their problem is not with the truth. It’s with reality.

I was struck by this while listening to a congressional candidates debate Saturday (10/23/2010) on KSCO-AM, a right-wing talk radio station here on the Central Coast of California. The Libertarian and Republican candidates, along with the host, made a series of claims along the lines of Congress being rife with socialists* or that we now live under “tyranny”. The Democratic candidate, incumbent Sam Farr, characterized this nonsense as “toxic talk”. (Disclosure: Sam Farr is a client of my firm’s new media services.)

The right wingers appeared to be, and I think genuinely were, stung by Farr’s comment. The host stated proudly his station would never, ever feature toxic talk. He then went into an extended promo for a live appearance by Alex Jones, whose syndicated program is on this station five days a week. Jones claims that President Obama is trying to turn America into Nazi Germany, that FEMA is setting up death camps, that the US government was behind the 9/11 attacks, and that the “New World Order”, which supposedly includes our government, plans to exterminate 80% of the world’s population.

The problem here was not ignorance. The host, who also happens to be the station owner, knows what’s on his air every day. And I really don’t think it was dishonesty. There was real conviction in his voice, and in those of the two right-wing candidates.

The issue here was reality.

Setting aside the hopelessly ignorant and the irredeemably dishonest, we need to engage with the many people in this country who just refuse to accept the reality we have, and who are pouring their energy into creating an alternate, fictional one.

Yes, oil companies and their mouthpieces will deliberately lie about global warming. And yes, some of their targets are people who were unable to make sense of high school science. But many global warming deniers are both sincere and intelligent. It doesn’t matter how much evidence shows that people are contributing to climate change, these people don’t want it to be true — and they believe they can make it not true.

Similarly, they don’t want to believe that America could possibly face challenges as serious as those the Obama administration is grappling with. And so, for them, America isn’t in trouble at all, except from those they see as trying to change it.

I believe the opponent these people are fighting is not Democratic change. It’s change itself.

As Manhattan Project participant Stanislaw Ulam and others have noted, the modern world is not just changing faster than it ever has before; the rate of that change is constantly increasing. It’s as if we’re riding in a runaway train that’s accelerating at an ever higher rate — from 50 to 100 in one moment, 100 to 200 in the next.

It’s a terrifying experience. And what do terrified people do? They cover their eyes.

We’re not going to get anywhere with such people by telling them they’re ignorant or dishonest. We have to find a way to acknowledge their fear, and see if we can help them take at least a peek at the real world. It is a scary place, and we’re going to need their help, too, in coping with it.